Biden narrowly leads Trump in six swing states before Election Day, poll shows

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Biden narrowly leads Trump in six swing states before Election Day, poll shows

PUBLISHED MON, NOV 2 20207:15 PM ESTUPDATED 3 HOURS AGOJacob Pramuk@JACOBPRAMUKKEY POINTS

  • Joe Biden holds at least narrow leads over Donald Trump in the six 2020 election swing states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to a CNBC/Change Research poll.
  • The survey taken in the final stretch before Election Day also finds Democrats hold an edge in three pivotal Senate races in Arizona, Michigan and North Carolina.
  • 68% of voters in the states say they have already cast their ballots.

WATCH NOWVIDEO03:17Kornacki on the latest battleground state polls

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds narrow leads over President Donald Trump in six states the president aims to defend Tuesday in his bid for a second term, according to a new CNBC/Change Research poll.close dialogEveryone will cover the electionWe cover what it means
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The survey released Monday finds the former vice president holding at least a slim edge in all of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all of which Trump won in 2016. Even so, it shows a race within striking distance for the president in most of those electoral college prizes.

  • All six swing states: Biden 50%, Trump 46%
  • Arizona: Biden 50%, Trump 47%
  • Florida: Biden 51%, Trump 48%
  • Michigan: Biden 51%, Trump 44%
  • North Carolina: Biden 49%, Trump 47%
  • Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 46%
  • Wisconsin: Biden 53%, Trump 45%

A separate national CNBC/Change Research poll shows Biden leading Trump by a 52% to 42% margin.

The swing-state poll surveyed 3,328 people from Thursday to Sunday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.7 percentage points. The national survey, taken over the same time frame, has a sample size of 1,880 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.26 percentage points.

The polls in the final stretch before Election Day show a clear, but by no means insurmountable, advantage for Biden in the race for the White House. While contests in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania appear close, Trump has more ground to make up in Michigan and Wisconsin, two long blue states that helped to propel him to the White House in 2016.

It is unclear how much any late shifts in voter sentiment will change the presidential race this year. In an election where Americans cast their ballots early or by mail in staggering numbers, 68% of respondents to both the national and swing-state surveys said they had already voted.

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